China A-share · SSE · 601888
China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888) stock analysis: valuation and financials
商务服务业
¥48.92 -1.1% Price as of Oct 21, 2026
Leader in duty-free licenses, but revenue has declined for two consecutive years, net margin fell to 6.7%, and ROIC is down 8.7 percentage points over three years; net cash of RMB21.88 billion and an extremely robust balance sheet; base-case upside of 23.2%, with risk-reward positively skewed.
- Market cap
- ¥101.6B
- P/E
- 24.8x
- EV/Sales
- 1.5x
- FCF yield
- 4.5%
- 52-week range
- ¥48.56 – ¥96.24
Research as of Oct 21, 2026 · Translated from the Chinese report
Business quality scorecard
- Growth0
- Profitability34
- Cash flow67
- Balance sheet100
- Capital allocation36
- Innovation50
- Valuation60
0–100, computed from reported financials; higher is better, and a higher valuation score means cheaper.
How it makes money
The company makes money by selling duty-free goods to inbound and outbound travelers and to tourists departing Hainan Island, with duty-free as the main business; merchandise sales account for 97.9% of revenue and are the sole source of profit; FY2025 revenue was RMB53.69 billion, down 4.9% YoY, with a net margin of 6.7%.
Financials by year
| FY2021Jan–Dec 2021 | FY2022Jan–Dec 2022 | FY2023Jan–Dec 2023 | FY2024Jan–Dec 2024 | FY2025Jan–Dec 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ¥67.7B | ¥54.4B | ¥67.5B | ¥56.5B | ¥53.7B |
| Revenue growth | +28.7% | -19.6% | +24.1% | -16.4% | -4.9% |
| Gross margin | 33.7% | 28.4% | 31.8% | 32.0% | 32.8% |
| Operating margin | 21.9% | 14.0% | 12.8% | 10.9% | 9.9% |
| Net income | ¥9.7B | ¥5.0B | ¥6.7B | ¥4.3B | ¥3.6B |
| Free cash flow | ¥6.2B | -¥6.4B | ¥13.3B | ¥6.8B | ¥4.8B |
| FCF margin | 9.1% | -11.8% | 19.7% | 12.1% | 8.9% |
Amounts in CNY · What is free cash flow?
Margins Gross margin 32.0%→32.8% (FY2025), TTM 33.3%, with cost decline outpacing revenue decline; operating margin 10.9%→9.9%, SG&A as a percentage of revenue rose to 20.3%, diluting the gross margin improvement.
- Cash flow HealthyFY2025 operating cash flow was RMB6.06 billion, 1.69x net profit of RMB3.59 billion; TTM operating cash flow of RMB5.93 billion was 1.45x net profit of RMB4.09 billion, indicating good cash conversion.
- Debt LowNet cash of RMB21.88 billion, net debt/EBITDA at -3.31x; cash of RMB27.18 billion was far above total debt of RMB5.30 billion, leaving the balance sheet in a net cash position.
Balance sheet Leverage · Net cash
- Cash & short-term investments
- ¥27.2B
- Total debt
- ¥5.3B
- Net cash
- ¥21.9B
- Interest coverage
- 24.3x
- Current ratio
- 4.2x
As of Jun 30, 2026 · Amounts in CNY · How to read a balance sheet
Management and track record
- Management WeakROIC fell from 91.7% in 2020 to 14.4% in 2025, down 8.7 percentage points over three years; net profit fell from RMB9.65 billion in 2021 to RMB3.59 billion in 2025.
Valuation range
Implied value per share · Price when researched: ¥48.92
Each scenario assumes five years of revenue growth, an FCF margin and an exit multiple, discounted to today. The assumptions and sensitivities are in the full report.
The full report also covers
- Revenue, growth and outlook of each segment
- Moat and main competitors
- Key risks
- Capital allocation: where the free cash flow went
- What management promised, and what they delivered
- Scenario assumptions and sensitivities
- A source for every claim
- Ask AI about this company
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