China A-share · SSE · 600519
Kweichow Moutai (600519) stock analysis: valuation and financials
酒、饮料和精制茶制造业
¥1,286.00 +0.9% Price as of Oct 14, 2026
Wide-moat, net-cash Moutai at 19.7x P/E and 7.3% FCF yield, but FY2025 revenue fell 1.2% and 1,505 inventory days cap growth; base case only +3% upside.
- Market cap
- ¥1.6T
- P/E
- 19.7x
- EV/Sales
- 9.0x
- FCF yield
- 7.3%
- 52-week range
- ¥1,168.63 – ¥1,519.05
Research as of Oct 14, 2026
Business quality scorecard
- Growth22
- Profitability100
- Cash flow79
- Balance sheet100
- Capital allocation73
- Innovation0
- Valuation90
0–100, computed from reported financials; higher is better, and a higher valuation score means cheaper.
How it makes money
Distributors and consumers pay for sauce-aroma baijiu: 茅台酒 alone is 85.2% of FY2025 revenue (CNY 146.5B) and the profit engine, with group gross margin of 91.3% and net margin of 47.9%, while all other lines are marginal.
Financials by year
| FY2021Jan–Dec 2021 | FY2022Jan–Dec 2022 | FY2023Jan–Dec 2023 | FY2024Jan–Dec 2024 | FY2025Jan–Dec 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ¥109.5B | ¥127.6B | ¥150.6B | ¥174.1B | ¥172.1B |
| Revenue growth | +11.7% | +16.5% | +18.0% | +15.7% | -1.2% |
| Gross margin | 91.8% | 92.1% | 92.1% | 92.1% | 91.3% |
| Operating margin | 68.3% | 68.9% | 68.9% | 68.7% | 66.7% |
| Net income | ¥52.5B | ¥62.7B | ¥74.7B | ¥86.2B | ¥82.3B |
| Free cash flow | ¥60.6B | ¥31.4B | ¥64.0B | ¥87.8B | ¥58.4B |
| FCF margin | 55.4% | 24.6% | 42.5% | 50.4% | 33.9% |
Amounts in CNY · What is free cash flow?
Margins Gross margin 92.1% FY2024 to 91.3% FY2025 (-74bp), 90.4% TTM; operating margin 68.7% to 66.7% (-2.0pp), 65.5% TTM. Q2 FY2026 was the weakest of eight quarters at 89.5% gross / 63.5% operating. Cause: cost of revenue +8.0% and SG&A +4.1% while revenue fell 1.2%.
- Cash flow HealthyTTM operating cash flow 119.1B vs net income 81.4B (1.46x); FY2025 OCF fell to 61.5B, only 0.75x of the 82.3B net income, the second such dip after FY2022 (36.7B vs 62.7B). Cash conversion 90.7%.
- Debt LowNet cash of 53.5B; net debt/EBITDA -0.46x; total debt only 56.9M TTM (44.2M FY2025) against equity of 251.3B, debt/equity 0.0002. Leverage negligible.
Balance sheet Leverage · Net cash
- Cash & short-term investments
- ¥53.5B
- Total debt
- ¥56.9M
- Net cash
- ¥53.5B
- Interest coverage
- 2498.9x
- Current ratio
- 5.6x
As of Jun 30, 2026 · Amounts in CNY · How to read a balance sheet
Management and track record
- Management AdequateCapital allocation is shareholder-friendly: five-year cumulative FCF CNY 302.2B against CNY 280.7B of dividends (~93%), net cash of CNY 53.5B, debt/equity 0.0002 and share count CAGR -0.06%, i.e. no dilution or dilutive deals.
Valuation range
Implied value per share · Price when researched: ¥1,286.00
Each scenario assumes five years of revenue growth, an FCF margin and an exit multiple, discounted to today. The assumptions and sensitivities are in the full report.
The full report also covers
- Revenue, growth and outlook of each segment
- Moat and main competitors
- Key risks
- Capital allocation: where the free cash flow went
- What management promised, and what they delivered
- Scenario assumptions and sensitivities
- A source for every claim
- Ask AI about this company
The full report is for members.