China A-share · SSE · 600887
Yili (600887) stock analysis: valuation and financials
食品制造业
¥27.60 -1.7% Price as of Oct 21, 2026
Narrow moat and stagnant growth: liquid milk accounts for 60.9% and is still shrinking; ROIC has fallen to 14.0%; net debt is RMB48.35 billion and the current ratio is 0.62; at 12.3x EV/EBITDA, the base case still offers 29.8% upside.
- Market cap
- ¥174.6B
- P/E
- 17.2x
- EV/Sales
- 1.9x
- FCF yield
- 10.5%
- 52-week range
- ¥23.96 – ¥28.21
Research as of Oct 21, 2026 · Translated from the Chinese report
Business quality scorecard
- Growth38
- Profitability35
- Cash flow81
- Balance sheet30
- Capital allocation56
- Innovation12
- Valuation83
0–100, computed from reported financials; higher is better, and a higher valuation score means cheaper.
How it makes money
Consumers buy liquid milk, milk powder and cold drinks; liquid milk accounts for 60.9% of revenue and is the largest revenue base; segment profit is not disclosed; group operating margin is 10.5%.
Financials by year
| FY2021Jan–Dec 2021 | FY2022Jan–Dec 2022 | FY2023Jan–Dec 2023 | FY2024Jan–Dec 2024 | FY2025Jan–Dec 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ¥110.6B | ¥123.2B | ¥126.2B | ¥115.8B | ¥115.9B |
| Revenue growth | +14.2% | +11.4% | +2.4% | -8.2% | +0.1% |
| Gross margin | 30.9% | 32.5% | 32.8% | 34.1% | 34.7% |
| Operating margin | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 11.7% |
| Net income | ¥8.7B | ¥9.4B | ¥10.4B | ¥8.5B | ¥11.6B |
| Free cash flow | ¥8.8B | ¥6.8B | ¥11.3B | ¥17.8B | ¥11.3B |
| FCF margin | 8.0% | 5.5% | 9.0% | 15.3% | 9.8% |
Amounts in CNY · What is free cash flow?
Margins Gross margin rose from 34.1% in FY2024 to 34.7% in FY2025, and was 35.0% on a TTM basis (+0.6 percentage points); operating margin rose from 8.8% to 11.7%, and was 10.5% on a TTM basis (+2.9 percentage points). Revenue was broadly flat, operating costs fell 0.9%, and the prior-year Q4 operating loss created a low base.
- Cash flow HealthyTTM operating cash flow was RMB21.14 billion, 2.09x net profit of RMB10.12 billion, with a cash conversion rate of 1.79x; FY2025 operating cash flow of RMB14.34 billion was also above net profit of RMB11.57 billion.
- Debt ManageableTTM net debt was RMB48.35 billion, net debt/EBITDA 2.67x; total debt RMB65.07 billion, cash RMB16.62 billion, debt/equity 1.21x.
Balance sheet Leverage · Moderate
- Cash & short-term investments
- ¥16.7B
- Total debt
- ¥65.1B
- Net debt
- ¥48.3B
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 2.7x
- Interest coverage
- 9.2x
- Current ratio
- 0.6x
As of Jun 30, 2026 · Amounts in CNY · How to read a balance sheet
Management and track record
- Management AdequateROIC fell from 23.7% in FY2020 to 14.0% in FY2025; three-year revenue CAGR was -2.0%, with return on capital and growth weakening in tandem.
Valuation range
Implied value per share · Price when researched: ¥27.60
Each scenario assumes five years of revenue growth, an FCF margin and an exit multiple, discounted to today. The assumptions and sensitivities are in the full report.
The full report also covers
- Revenue, growth and outlook of each segment
- Moat and main competitors
- Key risks
- Capital allocation: where the free cash flow went
- What management promised, and what they delivered
- Scenario assumptions and sensitivities
- A source for every claim
- Ask AI about this company
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