China A-share · SZSE · 000651
Gree Electric (000651) stock analysis: valuation and financials
电气机械和器材制造业
¥39.72 +0.2% Price as of Oct 14, 2026
Narrow-moat AC franchise: profitable and net cash of CNY79.7B, but revenue -10.0% in FY2025 and -12.9% TTM; at 8.0x P/E the market already prices persistent decline.
- Market cap
- ¥222.5B
- P/E
- 8.0x
- EV/Sales
- 0.9x
- FCF yield
- 15.9%
- 52-week range
- ¥34.95 – ¥40.43
Research as of Oct 15, 2026
Business quality scorecard
- Growth0
- Profitability60
- Cash flow93
- Balance sheet74
- Capital allocation56
- Innovation9
- Valuation100
0–100, computed from reported financials; higher is better, and a higher valuation score means cheaper.
How it makes money
Households and project buyers pay for air conditioners, HVAC and home appliances (consumer appliances 78.1% of FY2025 revenue), with manufacturing at 90.2% of revenue and the 30.1% group gross margin making it the profit engine.
Financials by year
| FY2021Jan–Dec 2021 | FY2022Jan–Dec 2022 | FY2023Jan–Dec 2023 | FY2024Jan–Dec 2024 | FY2025Jan–Dec 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ¥189.7B | ¥190.2B | ¥205.0B | ¥190.0B | ¥171.1B |
| Revenue growth | +11.2% | +0.3% | +7.8% | -7.3% | -10.0% |
| Gross margin | 25.0% | 26.5% | 29.8% | 29.8% | 30.1% |
| Operating margin | 14.1% | 14.3% | 16.0% | 19.5% | 20.3% |
| Net income | ¥23.1B | ¥24.5B | ¥29.0B | ¥32.2B | ¥29.0B |
| Free cash flow | -¥3.8B | ¥22.6B | ¥51.0B | ¥26.1B | ¥44.7B |
| FCF margin | -2.0% | 11.9% | 24.9% | 13.7% | 26.1% |
Amounts in CNY · What is free cash flow?
Margins Margins expanded despite shrinking revenue: FY2025 gross margin 30.08% (+33bp y/y), operating margin 20.27% (+80bp), net margin 16.95% flat; TTM gross 30.33%, operating 20.93%. Revenue fell 9.96% in FY2025 and cost of revenue fell 10.4%, so the gain is cost-led, not demand-led.
- Cash flow HealthyCash conversion 1.47x; TTM operating cash flow CNY36.9B comfortably exceeds net income CNY27.9B, so earnings are fully cash-backed with no accrual shortfall.
- Debt LowNet cash of CNY79.7B: total debt CNY83.0B against cash CNY128.2B plus short-term investments CNY34.4B; net debt/EBITDA -2.0x.
Balance sheet Leverage · Net cash
- Cash & short-term investments
- ¥162.7B
- Total debt
- ¥83.0B
- Net cash
- ¥79.7B
- Interest coverage
- 22.1x
- Current ratio
- 1.1x
As of Jun 30, 2026 · Amounts in CNY · How to read a balance sheet
Management and track record
- Management AdequateShareholder returns strong: 71.24B CNY dividends over five years versus 140.5B cumulative free cash flow, FCF margin 21.7% and net cash of 79.68B.
Valuation range
Implied value per share · Price when researched: ¥39.72
Each scenario assumes five years of revenue growth, an FCF margin and an exit multiple, discounted to today. The assumptions and sensitivities are in the full report.
The full report also covers
- Revenue, growth and outlook of each segment
- Moat and main competitors
- Key risks
- Capital allocation: where the free cash flow went
- What management promised, and what they delivered
- Scenario assumptions and sensitivities
- A source for every claim
- Ask AI about this company
The full report is for members.