China A-share · SZSE · 000568
Luzhou Laojiao (000568) stock analysis: valuation and financials
酒、饮料和精制茶制造业
¥69.18 -3.0% Price as of Oct 21, 2026
The high-end brand remains: gross margin 85.6%, net cash RMB21.59 billion, ROE 22.3%; however, revenue -35.8% YoY, inventory turnover 1,633 days, FCF margin 6.23%, and the base-case valuation still fell 13%, so overall cautious.
- Market cap
- ¥101.8B
- P/E
- 13.6x
- EV/Sales
- 4.1x
- FCF yield
- 1.2%
- 52-week range
- ¥69.18 – ¥134.11
Research as of Oct 21, 2026 · Translated from the Chinese report
Business quality scorecard
- Growth1
- Profitability100
- Cash flow47
- Balance sheet100
- Capital allocation60
- Innovation3
- Valuation36
0–100, computed from reported financials; higher is better, and a higher valuation score means cheaper.
How it makes money
Mid- to high-end baijiu such as Guojiao 1573 is sold to end consumers through distributors; mid- to high-end liquor accounts for 89.3% of revenue and 85.6% gross margin, and is the profit engine; FY2025 revenue RMB25.73 billion, -17.5% YoY.
Financials by year
| FY2021Jan–Dec 2021 | FY2022Jan–Dec 2022 | FY2023Jan–Dec 2023 | FY2024Jan–Dec 2024 | FY2025Jan–Dec 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ¥20.6B | ¥25.1B | ¥30.2B | ¥31.2B | ¥25.7B |
| Revenue growth | +24.0% | +21.7% | +20.3% | +3.2% | -17.5% |
| Gross margin | 85.7% | 86.6% | 88.3% | 87.5% | 86.6% |
| Operating margin | 51.3% | 55.1% | 59.0% | 58.4% | 57.1% |
| Net income | ¥8.0B | ¥10.4B | ¥13.2B | ¥13.5B | ¥10.8B |
| Free cash flow | ¥5.7B | ¥7.2B | ¥9.1B | ¥18.0B | ¥5.2B |
| FCF margin | 27.7% | 28.8% | 30.3% | 57.7% | 20.2% |
Amounts in CNY · What is free cash flow?
Margins FY2025 gross margin 86.62% (-0.91pp YoY), operating margin 57.07% (-1.29pp); TTM fell to 85.56% and 50.38%, Q2 FY2026 gross margin 83.8% (87.86% in the prior-year period). Mainly due to operating deleverage under -17.5% revenue and a downshift in product mix.
- Cash flow ConcernFY2025 operating cash flow RMB7.12 billion, only 65.8% of net profit of RMB10.83 billion (FY2024: 142%); TTM operating cash flow RMB3.14 billion versus net profit RMB7.51 billion, only 41.8%.
- Debt LowNet cash RMB21.59 billion, net debt/EBITDA -1.40x; total debt RMB6.35 billion versus cash RMB26.13 billion, debt-to-equity ratio 13.9%.
Balance sheet Leverage · Net cash
- Cash & short-term investments
- ¥27.9B
- Total debt
- ¥6.4B
- Net cash
- ¥21.6B
- Interest coverage
- 77.6x
- Current ratio
- 2.8x
As of Jun 30, 2026 · Amounts in CNY · How to read a balance sheet
Management and track record
- Management AdequateCapital allocation: 5-year cumulative free cash flow RMB45.28 billion, dividends RMB30.55 billion (about 67%), net cash RMB21.59 billion, 3-year share capital CAGR only 0.08%, no dilution.
Valuation range
Implied value per share · Price when researched: ¥69.18
Each scenario assumes five years of revenue growth, an FCF margin and an exit multiple, discounted to today. The assumptions and sensitivities are in the full report.
The full report also covers
- Revenue, growth and outlook of each segment
- Moat and main competitors
- Key risks
- Capital allocation: where the free cash flow went
- What management promised, and what they delivered
- Scenario assumptions and sensitivities
- A source for every claim
- Ask AI about this company
The full report is for members.