Hong Kong · HKEX · 09888
Baidu (09888) stock analysis: valuation and financials
媒体及娱乐
HK$81.65 -0.2% Price as of Oct 13, 2026
Narrow, eroding moat: FY2025 revenue -3.0%, operating margin -4.5%, FCF -CNY16.4B, offset by CNY62.4B net cash and 1.5x sales — price needs a large FCF swing.
- Market cap
- HK$223.2B
- P/E
- —
- EV/Sales
- 1.0x
- FCF yield
- -7.3%
- 52-week range
- HK$81.65 – HK$160.50
Research as of Oct 14, 2026
Business quality scorecard
- Growth4
- Profitability13
- Cash flow43
- Balance sheet67
- Capital allocation0
- Innovation39
- Valuation0
0–100, computed from reported financials; higher is better, and a higher valuation score means cheaper.
How it makes money
Advertisers and iQiyi paying members fund Baidu; online marketing services in Baidu Core are described as the engine, but FY2025 group operating margin was -4.5% on a 3.0% revenue decline.
Financials by year
| FY2021Jan–Dec 2021 | FY2022Jan–Dec 2022 | FY2023Jan–Dec 2023 | FY2024Jan–Dec 2024 | FY2025Jan–Dec 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ¥124.5B | ¥123.7B | ¥134.6B | ¥133.1B | ¥129.1B |
| Revenue growth | +16.3% | -0.7% | +8.8% | -1.1% | -3.0% |
| Gross margin | 48.3% | 48.3% | 51.7% | 50.3% | 43.9% |
| Operating margin | 8.4% | 12.9% | 16.2% | 16.0% | -4.5% |
| Net income | ¥10.2B | ¥7.6B | ¥20.3B | ¥23.8B | ¥5.6B |
| Free cash flow | ¥8.9B | ¥17.8B | ¥25.3B | ¥13.0B | -¥16.4B |
| FCF margin | 7.1% | 14.4% | 18.8% | 9.7% | -12.7% |
Amounts in CNY · What is free cash flow?
Margins FY2025 gross margin 43.9% versus 50.3% in FY2024 (-6.5pp; TTM 40.9%); operating margin -4.5% versus 16.0% (-20.5pp) as revenue fell 3.0% while cost of revenue and SG&A kept rising.
- Cash flow ConcernTrailing free cash flow is -14.1B (-11.0% margin) after -16.4B in FY2025 (-12.7%), and FY2025 operating cash flow was -3.0B against net income of 5.6B, so cash generation has broken down.
- Debt LowNet cash of 62.4B on a trailing basis: total debt 103.9B against 24.5B cash plus 141.7B short-term investments; net debt/EBITDA -4.02x and debt/equity 0.38 indicate no refinancing pressure.
Balance sheet Leverage · Net cash
- Cash & short-term investments
- ¥166.3B
- Total debt
- ¥103.9B
- Net cash
- ¥62.4B
- Current ratio
- 2.3x
As of Jun 30, 2026 · Amounts in CNY · How to read a balance sheet
Management and track record
- Management WeakCapital allocation scores 0/100: 26.1B CNY of buybacks and 13.6B CNY of acquisitions over five years, yet diluted shares still compounded at 7.65% a year, so repurchases failed to offset dilution.
Valuation range
Implied value per share · Price when researched: HK$81.65
Each scenario assumes five years of revenue growth, an FCF margin and an exit multiple, discounted to today. The assumptions and sensitivities are in the full report.
The full report also covers
- Revenue, growth and outlook of each segment
- Moat and main competitors
- Key risks
- Capital allocation: where the free cash flow went
- What management promised, and what they delivered
- Scenario assumptions and sensitivities
- A source for every claim
- Ask AI about this company
The full report is for members.