Hong Kong · HKEX · 09868
XPeng (09868) stock analysis: valuation and financials
汽车
HK$37.84 -1.7% Price as of Oct 13, 2026
Fast-growing but still loss-making: FY2025 revenue +87.7%, gross margin 18.9%, ROIC -7.2%; TTM FCF -19.4% margin and CNY10.2B net debt; 0.96x EV/sales prices a full cash-flow turn.
- Market cap
- HK$72.6B
- P/E
- —
- EV/Sales
- 1.0x
- FCF yield
- -23.5%
- 52-week range
- HK$36.28 – HK$108.50
Research as of Oct 14, 2026
Business quality scorecard
- Growth100
- Profitability0
- Cash flow0
- Balance sheet9
- Capital allocation40
- Innovation87
- Valuation0
0–100, computed from reported financials; higher is better, and a higher valuation score means cheaper.
How it makes money
Buyers are retail and fleet customers paying for smart EVs plus third-party partners paying for software/technical services and charging; vehicle sales supply the bulk of FY2025 revenue of 76.72B CNY, and no line is yet a profit engine — FY2025 gross margin 18.9% but operating margin -3.6% and net margin -1.5%.
Financials by year
| FY2021Jan–Dec 2021 | FY2022Jan–Dec 2022 | FY2023Jan–Dec 2023 | FY2024Jan–Dec 2024 | FY2025Jan–Dec 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ¥21.0B | ¥26.9B | ¥30.7B | ¥40.9B | ¥76.7B |
| Revenue growth | +259.1% | +28.0% | +14.2% | +33.2% | +87.7% |
| Gross margin | 12.5% | 11.5% | 1.5% | 14.3% | 18.9% |
| Operating margin | -31.3% | -32.4% | -35.5% | -16.3% | -3.6% |
| Net income | -¥4.9B | -¥9.1B | -¥10.4B | -¥5.8B | -¥1.1B |
| Free cash flow | -¥5.4B | -¥12.9B | -¥1.9B | -¥4.4B | ¥4.9B |
| FCF margin | -25.8% | -48.1% | -6.1% | -10.9% | 6.4% |
Amounts in CNY · What is free cash flow?
Margins Gross margin rose to 18.9% in FY2025 from 14.3% (+4.6pp) and 20.7% TTM; operating margin improved to -3.6% from -16.3% but slipped back to -5.1% TTM as R&D grew 46.9%. Scale on 87.7% revenue growth is the main driver.
- Cash flow ConcernFY2025 operating cash flow of +CNY8.26B beat net income of -CNY1.14B, but TTM operating cash flow collapsed to -CNY11.10B against TTM net income of -CNY3.12B, an CNY8.0B cash shortfall.
- Debt HighNet debt is CNY10.2B versus net cash in FY2023-FY2024; cash plus short-term investments of CNY23.56B now cover only 70% of total debt of CNY33.75B.
Balance sheet Leverage · Distressed
- Cash & short-term investments
- ¥23.6B
- Total debt
- ¥33.8B
- Net debt
- ¥10.2B
- Net debt / EBITDA
- —
- Current ratio
- 1.1x
As of Jun 30, 2026 · Amounts in CNY · How to read a balance sheet
Management and track record
- Management AdequateExecution improving sharply: FY2025 revenue CNY76.72B, up 87.7% yoy, gross margin 18.86% versus 1.47% in FY2023, net loss narrowed to CNY1.14B.
Valuation range
Implied value per share · Price when researched: HK$37.84
Each scenario assumes five years of revenue growth, an FCF margin and an exit multiple, discounted to today. The assumptions and sensitivities are in the full report.
The full report also covers
- Revenue, growth and outlook of each segment
- Moat and main competitors
- Key risks
- Capital allocation: where the free cash flow went
- What management promised, and what they delivered
- Scenario assumptions and sensitivities
- A source for every claim
- Ask AI about this company
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