Hong Kong · HKEX · 09866
NIO (09866) stock analysis: valuation and financials
汽车
HK$26.74 -1.5% Price as of Oct 13, 2026
Premium-EV brand with genuine 33.1% growth and net cash of CNY 17.06B, but six straight loss years, negative FCF and 11.6% annual dilution; base-case upside 134.9% is cheap-but-unproven.
- Market cap
- HK$67.6B
- P/E
- —
- EV/Sales
- 0.5x
- FCF yield
- -5.3%
- 52-week range
- HK$26.48 – HK$58.40
Research as of Oct 14, 2026
Business quality scorecard
- Growth92
- Profitability0
- Cash flow0
- Balance sheet38
- Capital allocation0
- Innovation30
- Valuation0
0–100, computed from reported financials; higher is better, and a higher valuation score means cheaper.
How it makes money
Consumers pay for premium smart EVs, plus recurring battery-rental (BaaS), autonomous-driving (ADaaS) and energy services; vehicle sales are the revenue core, but no segment profit is disclosed and FY2025 group operating margin was -16.1%.
Financials by year
| FY2021Jan–Dec 2021 | FY2022Jan–Dec 2022 | FY2023Jan–Dec 2023 | FY2024Jan–Dec 2024 | FY2025Jan–Dec 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ¥36.1B | ¥49.3B | ¥55.6B | ¥65.7B | ¥87.5B |
| Revenue growth | +122.3% | +36.3% | +12.9% | +18.2% | +33.1% |
| Gross margin | 18.9% | 10.4% | 5.5% | 9.9% | 13.6% |
| Operating margin | -12.4% | -31.7% | -40.7% | -33.3% | -16.0% |
| Net income | -¥10.6B | -¥14.6B | -¥21.1B | -¥22.7B | -¥15.6B |
| Free cash flow | -¥2.1B | -¥10.8B | -¥15.7B | -¥17.0B | -¥3.1B |
| FCF margin | -5.8% | -22.0% | -28.3% | -25.8% | -3.5% |
Amounts in CNY · What is free cash flow?
Margins FY2025 gross margin 13.62% vs 9.88% FY2024 (+3.74pp); operating margin -16.05% vs -33.28% (+17.23pp); net margin -17.80% vs -34.47%. Revenue +33.1% with SG&A +2.2% and R&D -18.7% drove operating leverage; gross profit +83.6%.
- Cash flow WatchFY2025 operating cash flow +CNY 2.99B against a net loss of -CNY 15.57B, the first positive OCF since FY2021 (FY2024: -7.85B); the gap is mostly non-cash D&A of CNY 9.38B.
- Debt LowNet cash of CNY 17.06B: total debt CNY 13.97B against cash CNY 11.27B plus short-term investments CNY 19.76B; leverage classified as net cash.
Balance sheet Leverage · Net cash
- Cash & short-term investments
- ¥31.0B
- Total debt
- ¥14.0B
- Net cash
- ¥17.1B
- Current ratio
- 1.0x
As of Dec 31, 2025 · Amounts in CNY · How to read a balance sheet
Management and track record
- Management AdequateFounder-led since 2014. FY2025 revenue +33.1% to CNY87.5B, gross margin 13.6% (+3.7pp) and FCF margin -3.5% versus -25.9% in FY2024 show genuine operating progress.
Valuation range
Implied value per share · Price when researched: HK$26.74
Each scenario assumes five years of revenue growth, an FCF margin and an exit multiple, discounted to today. The assumptions and sensitivities are in the full report.
The full report also covers
- Revenue, growth and outlook of each segment
- Moat and main competitors
- Key risks
- Capital allocation: where the free cash flow went
- What management promised, and what they delivered
- Scenario assumptions and sensitivities
- A source for every claim
- Ask AI about this company
The full report is for members.