Hong Kong · HKEX · 06862
Haidilao (06862) stock analysis: valuation and financials
旅游及消闲设施
HK$9.30 -3.0% Price as of Oct 13, 2026
Narrow-moat hot pot leader with net cash CNY4.86B, a 7.8% dividend yield and 11x P/E, but revenue growth of just 1.1% and falling margins; base case implies 104% upside.
- Market cap
- HK$51.8B
- P/E
- 10.9x
- EV/Sales
- 0.9x
- FCF yield
- 8.1%
- Dividend yield
- 7.8%
- 52-week range
- HK$9.08 – HK$17.68
Research as of Oct 14, 2026
Business quality scorecard
- Growth21
- Profitability69
- Cash flow77
- Balance sheet78
- Capital allocation93
- Valuation99
0–100, computed from reported financials; higher is better, and a higher valuation score means cheaper.
How it makes money
Diners at company-operated Haidilao hot pot restaurants pay for meals and service; that network is the profit engine, but no segment revenue or profit split is disclosed; FY2025 group operating margin 13.9% and net income CNY4.05B.
Financials by year
| FY2021Jan–Dec 2021 | FY2022Jan–Dec 2022 | FY2023Jan–Dec 2023 | FY2024Jan–Dec 2024 | FY2025Jan–Dec 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ¥39.1B | ¥31.0B | ¥41.5B | ¥42.8B | ¥43.2B |
| Revenue growth | +36.6% | -20.6% | +33.6% | +3.1% | +1.1% |
| Gross margin | 55.9% | 58.4% | 59.1% | 62.1% | 59.5% |
| Operating margin | -6.6% | 8.1% | 14.8% | 16.0% | 13.9% |
| Net income | -¥4.2B | ¥1.4B | ¥4.5B | ¥4.7B | ¥4.0B |
| Free cash flow | -¥663.2M | ¥5.3B | ¥8.4B | ¥6.3B | ¥3.9B |
| FCF margin | -1.7% | 17.1% | 20.2% | 14.8% | 9.1% |
Amounts in CNY · What is free cash flow?
Margins FY2025 gross margin 59.5% vs 62.1% in FY2024; operating margin 13.9% vs 16.0%; TTM 58.6% and 13.1%. Revenue grew only 1.1% while gross profit fell 3.2%, so cost of sales outpaced sales; management's stated reason is not disclosed.
- Cash flow HealthyFY2025 operating cash flow CNY5.66B versus net income CNY4.05B, a 1.4x cover; TTM CNY5.32B versus CNY4.06B, 1.3x. Cash conversion on the DATA basis is 1.68x.
- Debt LowNet cash of CNY4.86B at FY2025 (green flag); net debt/EBITDA -0.62x. Total debt is only CNY399M against cash of CNY6.60B and short-term investments of CNY1.23B.
Balance sheet Leverage · Net cash
- Cash & short-term investments
- ¥7.4B
- Total debt
- ¥2.6B
- Net cash
- ¥4.9B
- Interest coverage
- 29.2x
- Current ratio
- 1.2x
As of Jun 30, 2026 · Amounts in CNY · How to read a balance sheet
Management and track record
- Management AdequateFY2025 revenue rose only 1.1% to CNY 43.2B; operating margin fell to 13.9% from 16.0% in FY2024 and EPS growth was -13.8%.
Valuation range
Implied value per share · Price when researched: HK$9.30
Each scenario assumes five years of revenue growth, an FCF margin and an exit multiple, discounted to today. The assumptions and sensitivities are in the full report.
The full report also covers
- Revenue, growth and outlook of each segment
- Moat and main competitors
- Key risks
- Capital allocation: where the free cash flow went
- What management promised, and what they delivered
- Scenario assumptions and sensitivities
- A source for every claim
- Ask AI about this company
The full report is for members.