Hong Kong · HKEX · 02015
Li Auto (02015) stock analysis: valuation and financials
汽车
HK$45.24 +0.8% Price as of Oct 13, 2026
Premium family-SUV franchise now loss-making: FY2025 revenue -22.3%, FCF -CNY12.8B, but CNY78.4B net cash and a CNY1.5B enterprise value make the price a cheap option on recovery.
- Market cap
- HK$93.3B
- P/E
- —
- EV/Sales
- 0.0x
- FCF yield
- -18.9%
- 52-week range
- HK$42.40 – HK$89.65
Research as of Oct 14, 2026
Business quality scorecard
- Growth33
- Profitability0
- Cash flow50
- Balance sheet61
- Capital allocation36
- Innovation32
- Valuation0
0–100, computed from reported financials; higher is better, and a higher valuation score means cheaper.
How it makes money
Chinese family consumers pay fixed retail prices for premium smart EREV and BEV vehicles, plus bundled after-sales and charging services; vehicle sales is effectively the whole business and the profit engine, though FY2025 gross margin fell to 18.7% and operating margin turned negative at -0.5%.
Financials by year
| FY2021Jan–Dec 2021 | FY2022Jan–Dec 2022 | FY2023Jan–Dec 2023 | FY2024Jan–Dec 2024 | FY2025Jan–Dec 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ¥27.0B | ¥45.3B | ¥123.9B | ¥144.5B | ¥112.3B |
| Revenue growth | +185.6% | +67.7% | +173.5% | +16.6% | -22.3% |
| Gross margin | 21.3% | 19.4% | 22.2% | 20.5% | 18.7% |
| Operating margin | -3.8% | -8.1% | 6.0% | 4.9% | -0.5% |
| Net income | -¥321.5M | -¥2.0B | ¥11.7B | ¥8.0B | ¥1.1B |
| Free cash flow | ¥4.9B | ¥2.3B | ¥44.2B | ¥8.2B | -¥12.8B |
| FCF margin | 18.1% | 5.0% | 35.7% | 5.7% | -11.4% |
Amounts in CNY · What is free cash flow?
Margins FY2025 gross margin 18.68% vs 20.53% in FY2024 and operating margin -0.46% vs 4.86%, on revenue -22.3%. TTM gross margin 13.59%, operating -6.6%; Q1 FY2026 7.87% and Q2 FY2026 11.05%. Main reason: volume deleverage plus price/mix pressure.
- Cash flow ConcernFY2025 operating cash flow -8.61B vs net income +1.12B; TTM OCF -9.95B, FCF -15.13B, FCF margin -14.4%. The reported 2.78x cash conversion is a multi-year artefact and no longer holds.
- Debt LowNet cash of 78.44B: total debt 7.15B against cash 40.12B plus short-term investments 45.47B; debt/equity 10.9% and current ratio 1.81.
Balance sheet Leverage · Net cash
- Cash & short-term investments
- ¥85.6B
- Total debt
- ¥7.2B
- Net cash
- ¥78.4B
- Current ratio
- 1.8x
As of Jun 30, 2026 · Amounts in CNY · How to read a balance sheet
Management and track record
- Management WeakFY2025 revenue fell 22.3% to CNY112.3B; operating margin turned negative at -0.46% and net income dropped to CNY1.12B, with EPS -85.75% YoY.
Valuation range
Implied value per share · Price when researched: HK$45.24
Each scenario assumes five years of revenue growth, an FCF margin and an exit multiple, discounted to today. The assumptions and sensitivities are in the full report.
The full report also covers
- Revenue, growth and outlook of each segment
- Moat and main competitors
- Key risks
- Capital allocation: where the free cash flow went
- What management promised, and what they delivered
- Scenario assumptions and sensitivities
- A source for every claim
- Ask AI about this company
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