Hong Kong · HKEX · 01299
AIA (01299) stock analysis: valuation and financials
保险
HK$73.05 +1.6% Price as of Oct 13, 2026
Pan-Asian life leader with a narrow moat, 100/100 balance sheet but 45/100 growth, 16.1% operating margin and 7.6% TTM FCF; 11.8x PE undemanding, value hinges on margin normalisation.
- Market cap
- HK$755.8B
- P/E
- 11.8x
- EV/Sales
- 2.3x
- FCF yield
- 3.8%
- Dividend yield
- 2.7%
- 52-week range
- HK$68.80 – HK$90.95
Research as of Oct 14, 2026
Business quality scorecard
- Growth45
- Profitability41
- Cash flow65
- Balance sheet100
- Capital allocation74
- Valuation72
0–100, computed from reported financials; higher is better, and a higher valuation score means cheaper.
How it makes money
Policyholders across 17 Asia-Pacific markets pay premiums for life, health, retirement and group-benefit cover; life underwriting plus investment income is the profit engine, generating FY2025 revenue of CNY275.1B at a 16.1% operating margin.
Financials by year
| FY2021Jan–Dec 2021 | FY2022Jan–Dec 2022 | FY2023Jan–Dec 2023 | FY2024Jan–Dec 2024 | FY2025Jan–Dec 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ¥303.0B | -¥109.4B | ¥210.6B | ¥221.7B | ¥275.1B |
| Revenue growth | -7.8% | -136.1% | — | +5.3% | +24.1% |
| Operating margin | 17.8% | — | 14.7% | 22.5% | 16.1% |
| Net income | ¥47.4B | ¥23.2B | ¥26.7B | ¥49.1B | ¥43.8B |
| Free cash flow | ¥23.4B | ¥67.6B | ¥65.0B | ¥17.4B | ¥45.8B |
| FCF margin | 7.7% | — | 30.8% | 7.8% | 16.7% |
Amounts in CNY · What is free cash flow?
Margins Gross margin is not disclosed (insurers report no gross-profit line). Operating margin fell to 16.1% in FY2025 from 22.5% in FY2024 (TTM 18.0%); revenue rose 24.1% while operating income fell 11.2%, so costs and claims outgrew the top line.
- Cash flow WatchFY2025 operating cash flow of CNY 49.0B covered net income of CNY 43.8B (1.12x), and five-year cumulative free cash flow reached CNY 219.2B.
- Debt ManageableNet debt of CNY 94.6B equals total debt; debt-to-equity is 34.2% and net debt is 14.6% of the CNY 648.1B reporting-currency market capitalisation.
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term investments
- —
- Total debt
- ¥94.6B
- Net debt
- ¥94.6B
- Net debt / EBITDA
- —
As of Jun 30, 2026 · Amounts in CNY · How to read a balance sheet
Management and track record
- Management AdequateOver five years $96.5B of buybacks and $80.0B of dividends versus $219.2B cumulative free cash flow; diluted shares fell from 12.04B (FY2020) to 10.57B (FY2025), a 3.9% three-year CAGR.
Valuation range
Implied value per share · Price when researched: HK$73.05
Each scenario assumes five years of revenue growth, an FCF margin and an exit multiple, discounted to today. The assumptions and sensitivities are in the full report.
The full report also covers
- Revenue, growth and outlook of each segment
- Moat and main competitors
- Key risks
- Capital allocation: where the free cash flow went
- What management promised, and what they delivered
- Scenario assumptions and sensitivities
- A source for every claim
- Ask AI about this company
The full report is for members.