US · Nasdaq · SBUX
Starbucks (SBUX) stock analysis: valuation and financials
Consumer Discretionary · Restaurants
$92.63 +0.4% Price as of Oct 13, 2026
Narrow but eroding moat: 2.8% FY2025 revenue growth, 7.9% operating margin, $9.67B net debt at 2.08x EBITDA; 53x P/E and 24.8x EV/EBITDA leave base-case DCF 12% below price.
- Market cap
- $105.6B
- P/E
- 53.3x
- EV/Sales
- 3.0x
- FCF yield
- 3.4%
- Dividend yield
- 2.7%
- 52-week range
- $78.46 – $108.55
- Next earnings
- Oct 29, 2026
Research as of Oct 13, 2026
Business quality scorecard
- Growth14
- Profitability61
- Cash flow79
- Balance sheet25
- Capital allocation60
- Valuation33
0–100, computed from reported financials; higher is better, and a higher valuation score means cheaper.
How it makes money
Customers pay for handcrafted beverages, food and packaged coffee through company-operated stores (83% of revenue), licensed stores (12%) and the Nestlé alliance; North America supplies 74% of revenue and effectively all segment profit, while Channel Development is the margin engine at 47.3%.
Financials by year
| FY2021Oct 2020–Sep 2021 | FY2022Oct 2021–Sep 2022 | FY2023Oct 2022–Sep 2023 | FY2024Oct 2023–Sep 2024 | FY2025Oct 2024–Sep 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $29.1B | $32.3B | $36.0B | $36.2B | $37.2B |
| Revenue growth | +23.6% | +11.0% | +11.6% | +0.6% | +2.8% |
| Operating margin | 16.8% | 14.3% | 16.3% | 15.0% | 7.9% |
| Net income | $4.2B | $3.3B | $4.1B | $3.8B | $1.9B |
| Free cash flow | $4.5B | $2.6B | $3.7B | $3.3B | $2.4B |
| FCF margin | 15.6% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 6.6% |
Amounts in USD · What is free cash flow?
Margins FY2025 operating margin fell 710bp to 7.9% (FY2024 15.0%), with product and distribution costs up 50bp of revenue; TTM operating margin 7.8%. Q3 FY2026 rebounded to 10.5% on sales leverage, lower inflation, tariff refunds and the China licence conversion.
- Cash flow HealthyTTM operating cash flow $4.99B versus $1.98B net income, a 1.73x conversion; FY2025 OCF $4.75B versus $1.86B net income, helped by $713.2M of non-cash disposal, impairment and accelerated amortization.
- Debt ManageableNet debt $9.67B, net debt/EBITDA 2.08x and interest coverage 5.35x on $556.4M TTM interest expense; total debt $16.07B at FY2025-end versus $13.28B TTM.
Balance sheet Leverage · Moderate
- Cash & short-term investments
- $3.6B
- Total debt
- $13.3B
- Net debt
- $9.7B
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 2.1x
- Interest coverage
- 5.4x
- Current ratio
- 0.8x
As of Jun 28, 2026 · Amounts in USD · How to read a balance sheet
Management and track record
- Management AdequateLeadership almost fully rebuilt since 2024: CEO and CFO joined 2024-2025, COO and chief legal officer in 2025. Niccol brings Chipotle and Taco Bell turnaround experience, but the current team's SBUX record is short.
- Credibility MediumFY2025 was the miss: revenue +2.8% to $37.2B, but operating income fell to $2.9B and GAAP EPS to $1.63 from $3.31, operating margin 7.9% versus 15.0% on restructuring and Back to Starbucks labor spend.
Valuation range
Implied value per share · Price when researched: $92.63
Each scenario assumes five years of revenue growth, an FCF margin and an exit multiple, discounted to today. The assumptions and sensitivities are in the full report.
The full report also covers
- Revenue, growth and outlook of each segment
- Moat and main competitors
- Key risks
- Capital allocation: where the free cash flow went
- What management promised, and what they delivered
- Scenario assumptions and sensitivities
- A source for every claim
- Ask AI about this company
The full report is for members.