US · Nasdaq · MSTR
Strategy (MSTR) stock analysis: valuation and financials
Technology · Computer Software: Prepackaged Software
$153.84 +0.8% Price as of Oct 13, 2026
Legacy analytics software is contracting and cash-flow negative; value rests on a leveraged bitcoin treasury ($4.26B net debt) at 130.3x sales. Bottom line: pricing depends on treasury premium, not operations.
- Market cap
- $64.9B
- P/E
- —
- EV/Sales
- 138.8x
- FCF yield
- -0.0%
- 52-week range
- $82.31 – $359.69
- Next earnings
- Oct 29, 2026
Research as of Oct 13, 2026
Business quality scorecard
- Growth11
- Profitability29
- Cash flow15
- Balance sheet67
- Capital allocation33
- Innovation47
- Valuation0
0–100, computed from reported financials; higher is better, and a higher valuation score means cheaper.
How it makes money
Enterprise analytics customers pay for support, cloud subscriptions, services and licenses ($477.2M FY2025 revenue, $327.8M gross profit), making software the only revenue-generating business; the 717,131-BTC treasury drives shareholder value but produces no revenue.
Financials by year
| FY2021Jan–Dec 2021 | FY2022Jan–Dec 2022 | FY2023Jan–Dec 2023 | FY2024Jan–Dec 2024 | FY2025Jan–Dec 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $510.8M | $499.3M | $496.3M | $463.5M | $477.2M |
| Revenue growth | +6.2% | -2.3% | -0.6% | -6.6% | +3.0% |
| Gross margin | 82.0% | 79.4% | 77.8% | 72.1% | 68.7% |
| Operating margin | -153.6% | -255.5% | -23.2% | -399.8% | -1140.8% |
| Net income | -$535.5M | -$1.5B | $429.1M | -$1.2B | -$3.8B |
| Free cash flow | $91.1M | $725.0K | $9.8M | -$56.0M | -$75.5M |
| FCF margin | 17.8% | 0.1% | 2.0% | -12.1% | -15.8% |
Amounts in USD · What is free cash flow?
Margins Gross margin fell 337bp to 68.7% in FY2025 from 72.1% in FY2024 (TTM 67.6%; Q2 FY2026 66.6%) as cloud subscriptions displaced perpetual licences. Operating margin fell to -1141.0% from -399.8%, and -7295.0% TTM, on bitcoin fair-value marks: $5.4B FY2025 unrealized loss, $22.8B in H1 FY2026.
- Cash flow ConcernTTM operating cash flow -$20.1M against net income -$30.4B: bitcoin fair-value marks are non-cash, so the cash shortfall is far smaller than reported losses suggest.
- Debt ElevatedNet debt $4.26B versus $1.71B cash plus $736.1M short-term investments; debt/equity 21.7% and current ratio 5.39, so the burden is structural rather than near-term liquidity.
Balance sheet Leverage · Distressed
- Cash & short-term investments
- $2.4B
- Total debt
- $6.7B
- Net debt
- $4.3B
- Net debt / EBITDA
- —
- Current ratio
- 5.4x
As of Jun 30, 2026 · Amounts in USD · How to read a balance sheet
Management and track record
- Management WeakDilution is extreme: diluted shares rose from 106.5M (FY2020) to 277.7M (FY2025), a 34.9% three-year CAGR, with zero buybacks in five years against $307.8M of share-based comp and cumulative FCF of -$29.8M.
- Credibility LowFY2025 guidance of $34.0B operating income, $24.0B net income and $80.00 EPS was reaffirmed on 2025-10-30 but actuals were -$5.44B, -$3.85B and -$15.23.
Of 4 guided figures checked: 0 beat, 0 in range, 4 missed.
Valuation range
Implied value per share · Price when researched: $153.84
Each scenario assumes five years of revenue growth, an FCF margin and an exit multiple, discounted to today. The assumptions and sensitivities are in the full report.
The full report also covers
- Revenue, growth and outlook of each segment
- Moat and main competitors
- Key risks
- Capital allocation: where the free cash flow went
- What management promised, and what they delivered
- Scenario assumptions and sensitivities
- A source for every claim
- Ask AI about this company
The full report is for members.