US · Nasdaq · ASTS
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) stock analysis: valuation and financials
Consumer Discretionary · Telecommunications Equipment
$47.20 -8.3% Price as of Oct 13, 2026
Pre-revenue satellite build: revenue up 16x to $70.9M with $1.62B net cash, but FY2025 FCF -$1.14B and 145x EV/sales price in an unlaunched service; base case implies downside.
- Market cap
- $18.4B
- P/E
- —
- EV/Sales
- 145.3x
- FCF yield
- -8.9%
- 52-week range
- $50.70 – $133.09
- Next earnings
- Nov 9, 2026
Research as of Oct 14, 2026
Business quality scorecard
- Growth100
- Cash flow0
- Balance sheet100
- Innovation50
- Valuation0
0–100, computed from reported financials; higher is better, and a higher valuation score means cheaper.
How it makes money
MNOs pay for gateway equipment (Product, 62.6% of FY2025 revenue) and the U.S. government for satellite testing (Service, 37.4%); neither is a profit engine — the revenue-share SpaceMobile Service is unlaunched and FY2025 net loss was $341.9M.
Financials by year
| FY2021Jan–Dec 2021 | FY2022Jan–Dec 2022 | FY2023Jan–Dec 2023 | FY2024Jan–Dec 2024 | FY2025Jan–Dec 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.4M | $13.8M | $0 | $13.8M | $70.9M |
| Revenue growth | +107.9% | +11.4% | -100.0% | — | +413.0% |
| Gross margin | 39.0% | 51.4% | — | — | — |
| Net income | -$30.6M | -$31.6M | -$87.6M | -$300.1M | -$341.9M |
| Free cash flow | -$95.2M | -$213.7M | -$267.7M | -$300.3M | -$1.1B |
| FCF margin | -767.2% | -1546.1% | — | -2171.9% | -1602.2% |
Amounts in USD · What is free cash flow?
Margins FY2025 gross margin ~50.3% ($70.9M revenue less $35.2M cost of revenues); FY2024 is not comparable (no product cost disclosed against $4.4M revenue). Operating margin improved to ~-406% from ~-5,500% as revenue scaled 16x while operating expenses rose 45% to $358.6M.
- Cash flow ConcernTTM operating cash flow -$144.7M versus TTM net loss -$618.8M; the gap is bridged by $148.0M of stock-based comp and $66.7M of D&A, not by collection of earnings.
- Debt LowTotal debt $2.97B (from $222M at FY2025-end, $158.5M at FY2024-end), but cash $2.29B plus short-term investments $2.30B leave net cash of $1.62B; current ratio 13.05x.
Balance sheet Leverage · Net cash
- Cash & short-term investments
- $4.6B
- Total debt
- $3.0B
- Net cash
- $1.6B
- Current ratio
- 13.1x
As of Jun 30, 2026 · Amounts in USD · How to read a balance sheet
Management and track record
- Management AdequateWisniewski has driven over $4B of equity, convertible note and prepayment financings since 2021, and CTO Yao has been in seat since 2018, giving technical continuity.
- Credibility MediumFinancial guidance is being met: H2 FY2025 revenue of $69.0M (Q3 $14.7M plus Q4 $54.3M) landed inside the reiterated $50.0M-$75.0M range.
Valuation range
Implied value per share · Price when researched: $47.20
Each scenario assumes five years of revenue growth, an FCF margin and an exit multiple, discounted to today. The assumptions and sensitivities are in the full report.
The full report also covers
- Revenue, growth and outlook of each segment
- Moat and main competitors
- Key risks
- Capital allocation: where the free cash flow went
- What management promised, and what they delivered
- Scenario assumptions and sensitivities
- A source for every claim
- Ask AI about this company
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